Regardless of what it means, weather is hard to predict and I wouldn't really trust a 10 day forecast. A quick search shows typical accuracies of about 50%. But that's for a 5 day forecast. A NOAA/NWS report places their 10 day precipitation forecast accuracy at about 40%. Wait till a few days before and then you can say something more definite.
Agreed, too far out to predict. The women's molo a good example. 4 days out it was going to be pretty calm 10-15. But it was more like 15-20 and looked pretty good.
Agreed. Even the best cannot and probably should not speculate so far out. Most weather patterns can not be predicted accurately 10 days out. That which is sure,> a dropping tide on a full moon.....who can say how the water will be moving? Train hard physically and mentally and jus go!
I forget which year it was but the Hoe that was held right after Henry Ayau died was pretty calm the day before. The morning of the race we woke up to a classic gusty channel. It was epic.
Don't get all negative so far out.
Bill Bright has told me for the last three years, "it is what it is" and "what can you do about it, huh?". With that in mind, irregardless of the conditions, those who have put in the time and committed to race are all heroes in my book. 1st or 71st, we all still participated.
The fastest times thus far have been on flat years. Maybe people are just getting faster (I'm sure they are).
But The ocean is always moving... I'm sure those crews who are attuned to it will find a fast route like always.
Synopsis
As the subtropical ridge settles just north of the islands, winds will remain light and variable, allowing local land and sea breezes to develop. Clouds and showers will favor interior areas each afternoon and evening through the work week. A short wave upper trough passing across the islands will keep the threat of thunderstorms alive through today. Trade winds will return next weekend.
i remember asking a coach one time if it would be efficient to learn how to fly the ama in a six man jus to get that extra speed on a wave...I just got my question answered...I also pooped ma pants
Once I was told "You're wasting time changing sides. Just paddle on the same side for hours , you'll go faster !"
That guy was a Math teacher, Hehehe !
Flat? Now's your Chance Fuzerider to bring on down a bunch of Marathon river canoe paddlers to paddle the big flat Kaiwi river like it was done only a few years ago by Offshore, Blazing Saddles, and the Illinois Brigade. I'm sure them river paddlers will give the Tahitians a run for the money?
Can you get that kind of report two weeks out from the Mens Molo, Oct 11th? Maybe this weekend could be shitty.
#1 Thu, 10/01/2009 - 8:55pm
Perfect that means no bailing of water and no canvas how great is that
#2 Thu, 10/01/2009 - 9:44pm
no wind means really hot and flat. canvas, I want to use canvas and not be paddling in a frying pan.
#3 Thu, 10/01/2009 - 10:22pm
Regardless of what it means, weather is hard to predict and I wouldn't really trust a 10 day forecast. A quick search shows typical accuracies of about 50%. But that's for a 5 day forecast. A NOAA/NWS report places their 10 day precipitation forecast accuracy at about 40%. Wait till a few days before and then you can say something more definite.
#4 Fri, 10/02/2009 - 3:01am
cough cough.. i think i'm coming down with a "cold"
#5 Fri, 10/02/2009 - 8:45am
Agreed, too far out to predict. The women's molo a good example. 4 days out it was going to be pretty calm 10-15. But it was more like 15-20 and looked pretty good.
#6 Fri, 10/02/2009 - 8:52am
I do like this post though. In fact I think I might delete my previous comment. This created good gossip for the OCP mafia.
I'll help: Boy am I glad I'm not racing this year. 90 degrees with variable winds and a dropping tide. Thats gonna suck!
#7 Fri, 10/02/2009 - 8:54am
Sorry for all the teams that trained in the surf.
#8 Fri, 10/02/2009 - 9:58am
Agreed. Even the best cannot and probably should not speculate so far out. Most weather patterns can not be predicted accurately 10 days out. That which is sure,> a dropping tide on a full moon.....who can say how the water will be moving? Train hard physically and mentally and jus go!
Pahoepaa
#9 Fri, 10/02/2009 - 8:39pm
I forget which year it was but the Hoe that was held right after Henry Ayau died was pretty calm the day before. The morning of the race we woke up to a classic gusty channel. It was epic.
Don't get all negative so far out.
#10 Sat, 10/03/2009 - 8:37am
Bill Bright has told me for the last three years, "it is what it is" and "what can you do about it, huh?". With that in mind, irregardless of the conditions, those who have put in the time and committed to race are all heroes in my book. 1st or 71st, we all still participated.
#11 Sat, 10/03/2009 - 7:07pm
The fastest times thus far have been on flat years. Maybe people are just getting faster (I'm sure they are).
But The ocean is always moving... I'm sure those crews who are attuned to it will find a fast route like always.
#12 Sat, 10/03/2009 - 7:49pm
Training at lake wilson is really gonna pay off. Weather its flat or big. Paddling with friends it what I'm all about.
#13 Sat, 10/03/2009 - 8:20pm
good year to enter koa
#14 Sun, 10/04/2009 - 4:36pm
these guys don't care what the conditions are:
#15 Sun, 10/04/2009 - 5:02pm
I'm not showing my teenage daughters that clip!
#16 Sun, 10/04/2009 - 5:23pm
Issued: Oct 05, 2009 3:30 AM HST
Synopsis
As the subtropical ridge settles just north of the islands, winds will remain light and variable, allowing local land and sea breezes to develop. Clouds and showers will favor interior areas each afternoon and evening through the work week. A short wave upper trough passing across the islands will keep the threat of thunderstorms alive through today. Trade winds will return next weekend.
#17 Mon, 10/05/2009 - 10:10am
Not!!!!
#18 Tue, 10/06/2009 - 9:12pm
From National Weather Service
Might not be so flat after all...
#19 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 1:04pm
someone recommended this site for wind predictions
http://www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=20449
#20 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 2:03pm
i remember asking a coach one time if it would be efficient to learn how to fly the ama in a six man jus to get that extra speed on a wave...I just got my question answered...I also pooped ma pants
#21 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 4:37pm
Once I was told "You're wasting time changing sides. Just paddle on the same side for hours , you'll go faster !"
That guy was a Math teacher, Hehehe !
#22 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 8:24pm
I heard that sport its called dragon boat.
#23 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 10:27pm
Flat? Now's your Chance Fuzerider to bring on down a bunch of Marathon river canoe paddlers to paddle the big flat Kaiwi river like it was done only a few years ago by Offshore, Blazing Saddles, and the Illinois Brigade. I'm sure them river paddlers will give the Tahitians a run for the money?
#24 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 10:42pm
Damn, did someone mention river, this would of been the perfect year for Bondy and I to bring over our old farts team!
#25 Thu, 10/08/2009 - 1:51pm
Clarkie, there is Flat and there is Hawaiian Flat .... the later would still scare the pants off a river man. ...hahaha.
R
#26 Thu, 10/08/2009 - 7:17pm
Looks like it ain't gonna be flat after all. Technical maybe, but not flat.
Northeast winds 15 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. Northwest swell 8 ft. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
#27 Fri, 10/09/2009 - 9:34am