MOLO PREDICTIONS TOP10-15

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Submitted by keola_24 on Mon, 10/05/2009 - 3:38pm



Nobody? Really? Not one prediction 5 days before Molokai?


#1 Tue, 10/06/2009 - 7:58am


Who's entered?


#2 Tue, 10/06/2009 - 8:40am


That is the problem.

I would love to see the line up for the top 10 Hawaii Teams, All of the Tahitian teams, and the Top Masters teams.

It is tough to make a prediction when you don't know what Live Strong, Primo, and Lanikai's final crews are.

I think Tahitian team wins, but maybe Shell makes a mistake this year. Who is EDT or OPT bringing to challenge? Names? Other Tahitian Teams?

Put together all-Stars? Who is Karel Steering? or not?

Update on conditions? I heard starting to look better than a week ago.


#3 Tue, 10/06/2009 - 9:01am


Primo
Shell Vaa
EDT
Outrigger
Hui Lanakila 2
Lanakila California
Kailua
Lanikai/Team Steiny
Livestrong
Hui Nalu/HCKT
Australia Team


#4 Tue, 10/06/2009 - 9:33am


The first five sound more like, 3 Tahiti teams, Primo and Outrigger.


#5 Tue, 10/06/2009 - 10:42am


Don't forget about Paddling Connection... They're coming. Think they will paddle a Mirage. Other tahitian teams usually paddle a Bradley.


#6 Tue, 10/06/2009 - 12:30pm


From what I've seen and raced against recently, you guys up there better prepare for a very long period of Tahitian domination.... their junior teams are as strong as their senior teams... Tahitian paddling is just going from strength to strength, with so many good young paddlers coming through... sigh.


#7 Tue, 10/06/2009 - 1:47pm


I've heard that Shell have recently acquired the services of Taaroa Dubois, so they are not going to be any slower.


#8 Tue, 10/06/2009 - 2:16pm


Tahitian's dominating is not news to those of us that have been going to the World Sprints. Several of us have been saying that on this board for sometime now. I even said that the road to the World Championship of paddling no longer goes through Hawaii (Molokai Hoe), but now goes through Tahiti (Hawaiki Nui).

If I am not mistaken, Keahiakahoe's Boys 18 and under crew was state Champs in 2008. The team flew up to Sacremento and didn't even make it to the finals. I believe that in the finals, there were 8 lanes....tahiti had 7 crews in the finals and the Maori's had 1. If I am mistaken, then kala mai, I stand corrected. However, I think that was the finals for the Jr. division. Tahiti will be reloading for years to come.

Prediction for Molokai Hoe....Tahiti, Shell VA'a overall winner, Team Primo top Hawaii finisher. Dark horse pick is Live Strong.

JawsOut.


#9 Tue, 10/06/2009 - 2:23pm


1) Shell Va'a; Taaroa and younger brother is new addition. Don't know if first team. Can't forget about Yoann.
2) Paddling Connection; After watching tons of footage of them, they have great team chemistry and look smooth.
3 & 4) EDT or Erai; EDT is young and paddles similiar to Shell, losing Taaroa could hinder them, but Tahitians has unreal depth. Erai is bunch of Tahitian "kanaks" that hammers.
5) OCC; Great coaching, core paddlers, and tactics. Peaks during the big race. Remember 2006...
6 & 7) Primo or Lanikai; Primo has tons of talent and Maui chemistry along with leadership of Kai. Lanikai has Bruhns and Dolan brothers, and vet experience of Jim, nuff said.
8) Livestrong; who've done their homework and changed their technique and first hand training from Shells Coach.
9) Kailua; young motivated bunch of paddlers who will make a name for themselves within the next few years. Vet experience from Don, CJ and Uncle Hank.
10) Hui Lanakila; If everything stays in order, will produce results. We'll see...

Some is hearsay, some is fact, some is based on my opinion only. Hopefully this post doesn't irritate anyone...

Carlton Helm


#10 Tue, 10/06/2009 - 4:39pm


1 shell
2 paddle connection
3 edt
4 primo
5 occc
6 lanikai
7 livestrong
8 hui lanakila
9 lanakila calif
10 hui nalu
11 kailua
12 lanakila 2
13 australia
14 kai opua
15 hawaiian


#11 Tue, 10/06/2009 - 5:14pm


k

I heard Manutea is in town too? It's cool that the Tahitians, Aussies, Maori and Californians come and support the Molokai race, it keeps the prestige high and makes it an international class event. Be great to one-day see similar amounts of international entries in Hawaiki Nui.

Anyway, does anyone know if there is going to be...
A. Drug testing?
B. A change in the rules to have open class canoes and new OC6 hull designs

My picks are split into categories:

PROFESSIONAL
1. Shell

SEMI-PRO/AMATEUR
Coming in top 2 or 3 spots a young and fully pimped out Tahitian team. Then I would say strong Hawaiian front runners are Primo, Livestrong, OCC. Next bunch I would put in Keahiakahoe, they did great last year!


#12 Tue, 10/06/2009 - 8:40pm


EDT IS NOT COMING THIS YEAR!
Only next year. They say they want to win Hawiki Nui this year, so they are not coming.


#13 Tue, 10/06/2009 - 9:09pm


"PROFESSIONAL
1. Shell

SEMI-PRO/AMATEUR
Coming in top 2 or 3 spots a young and fully pimped out Tahitian team. Then I would say strong Hawaiian front runners are Primo, Livestrong, OCC. Next bunch I would put in Keahiakahoe, they did great last year!"

Team Primo should be in the Pro division no ?

Kudos for Livestrong and OCC for changing their technique and trying out new things...should pay off down the line.


#14 Tue, 10/06/2009 - 9:48pm


Yeah ! Everybody knows Shell is the only "Pro" team. In fact they should not be allowed to race the Molokai because every other team is amateur and that's unfair. Moreover, everybody knows that they're taking drugs and they're cheating... blah blah blah


#15 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 12:33am


Have to agree with Hiro. If Shell wins, they win. No whining that they are pros and no one else is. Pretty bad when people are already making excuses.


#16 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 2:47am


Shell Va?a Article from this mornings advertiser, notice the part where they talk of them not being professional:

http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/20091007/SPORTS13/910070350/Shell+Va+a+picking+up+speed
</http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/20091007/sports13/910070350/shell+va+a+picking+up+speed>


#17 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 7:19am


RachetJaws-
While Keahiakahoe won 18 boys states in 2008, and did poorly in Sacramento, it is important to keep in mind that the top paddlers from that crew were eligible for 14 or 15 boys that year, but opted to compete in the 18s division. That crew certainly has serious promise, and one of their paddlers dominated the 18s division of the recent HVA race, but had to leave before the mens event. Nearly the same Keahiakahoe crew competed in states this year and got a distant second to a Hui Nalu boys crew that put up a 7:11 and won by 12 seconds. Their time was good enough for top 5 in the Freshmen and Sophomore races, and the same time as first in the Junior race. That was significantly faster the Lanikai 18s with Dolan, Roney etc ever put up while they were dominating regatta season. Interesting to consider. I'm sure that Keahiakahoe crew will be back next year and most certainly be the favorite in states.


#18 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 7:35am


Mahalo Alika paddler....I stand corrected. I have the biggest respect for Stan and the Keahiakahoe program and how they taking the lead in bringing our youth paddlers up to speed. Stan takes his kids to the World Sprints, exposes them to what is out there, and they are leading the charge into the V-1 scene here at home. Props to them all. I hope you guys don't think that I was crapping on those kids because I wasn't. I apologize if anyone thinks that I was.

JawsOut.


#19 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 11:07am


we can compare crews, courses, times etc for days....
we can mimic techniques and paddles
we can say shell va'a is pro

But until the day that paddlers from Hawaii paddle year round sometimes multiple times in a day, have their families/job be flexible & allow them to paddle at a higher level than not to much is going to change. How often do most of you paddle with your crew? 3-4 days/week max? For what, about from the time regatta season starts in late April/Early May to October? One man in between but its not blending and training as a team.

Lets all try this schedule:
paddle - 6 am
pump gas - 8am
lift weights - 11 am
pump gas - 1 pm
paddle again - 5 pm

Or maybe get a different sponsor to help us work around our paddling ....let's see what happens


#20 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 12:57pm


We gotta have respect for the Tahitian system as a whole that has developed the talent that they have now. Financial sponsorship on it's own doesn't make much of a difference. We can't keep on making the excuse that they get paid to paddle, so Hawai'i wont win. I think that we're going to keep falling more behind if we don't overhaul our entire system of paddling.

Maybe I'm overly pessimistic, but I think that if you're old enough to read this forum, you're almost too old to have a chance at winning Moloka'i or Hawaiki Nui.

How about instead of us looking for corporate sponsorship, we start working on developing the youth. Giving them a reason (beyond financial) to dedicate themselves to the sport. Giving them the support (beyond financial) to reach their peak potential. Financial support can't hurt but I don't think it's what makes the difference. I think that we need to change Hawai'i paddling from the inside before we look for sponsorship from outside.

Sorry for that rant..... it's just one of those days.

On another note-- I think that the competition in Hawai'i is better than ever. As much as it's frustrating to see Tahiti so dominant over us, it's definitely pushing all the teams to be better than ever. Outrigger, Livestrong, Kailua, Hui Lanakila, Primo-- pretty cool to see how good they're all getting.


#21 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 2:00pm


Why no Big Island or Maui teams in the prediction mix?
Keauhou had fast novice Bs, As and Freshmen at States...


#22 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 2:00pm


Luke,
You have a very good point of developing youth, for those who think you need money to win is wrong.
What i said may have come off that way, Im saying you need the support from people beyond what most people have. Meaning being able to paddle multiple times a day and cross training etc. This could be done with a job that is given to you or your employer gives you flexible work hours. For example if you made a Team Kamanu and you allowed 2-3 of your elite paddlers to work for you but with hours in between training. Home Depot does this with Olympic Athletes. Why do Shell paddlers not work for another company or job? They are obviously helped.


#23 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 3:06pm


Luke and eckfart, I agree with you both whole heartedly. I have been paddling off and on for 30 plus years, recently I got back into it as a way of getting back into shape. I brought my son along with me after his playing days in pop warner were over. He has been steering for Healani the last 2 years and loves it. After canoe season was done last year I asked him if he wanted to play football and he said no, I also thought at the time that he was a little small for ILH intermediate ball. I spoke to the A.D. at Kamehameha Schools(Blane Gaison) and asked if he would be able to participate in H.S. Kayaking unfortunately he was too young. Fortunately he would be able to be a manager for the team, fortunately our classmate is the coach for the team. Blane Chong has been coaching my son and other high school students who have discovered the unknown ILH fall sport of "KAYAKING". As in both of your comments you both said that we should start with the youth of our state. Well the youth of our state has already started and this is the sport that has helped these young men and women excel into tomorrows good if not great paddlers. They are not big burly football studs, some are 85 pounds soaking wet. But when they settle into their kayaks they display the power and grace of a sport that just needs to be recognized. If there is a starting point for our hope for a Molokai Hoe winner from Hawaii then it is probaly down at the Ala Wai on saturdays in september and october racing for their respective schools. Kalei Kahookele and Rachel Fujita are prime examples.Kalei Kahookele was in the Keahiakahoe's 18 crew,in the Hui Nalu boat coached by Blane Chong was another good young kayaker named Kai Chong along with some of his other kayak buddies. You see what they did! On a final note,that young man who was dominating in the HVA 18 division,his name is Kalei Kahookele and he had too leave for the ILH kayak race at the Ala Wai.
Big Boys "Kick and Glide"


#24 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 6:19pm


BBYL braddahs..BBYL... and if you dont know now you know... you know


#25 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 6:22pm


I do believe that Team Livestrong and Kai Opua are from the Big Island. I think Team LS is the Keauhou guys?

I also saw Hawaiian in the the top 15. This is a rebuilding year for Hawaiian being that the Team Primo has majority of the ex Hawaiian paddlers.

As for Tahiti, until we can have guys who can do the same type of training schedule 4x a week together, we will never catch them. Shell, OPT, EDT and Paddling connection train together early in the season! Lanikai, last year, was probably the best Hawaii showing when competing against Tahiti. Primo may have a chance to do well. If Primo can beat a least 2 out of the 3 Tahitians that are coming.... then perhaps that will promote us here in Hawaii to start early on 6 man paddling and training. Hawaii crews try to group up together after the state race is completed. Needs to start earlier than that.

Here is another idea, how about have one of the good ex-Tahiti coaches come live in either Oahu, Maui or Big Island, work with guys in December to prepare for the channel? Do regattas and lead up LD races to be best prepared for the Channel then MAYBE there could be a good chance to beat Shell. That is the only thing we have not done yet.


#26 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 6:41pm


Having the coach is not enough. You got to have people willing to OBEY the coach...

Top teams paddlers in Tahiti (Shell, OPT,etc.) are helped. They are given the time to train only because their employers are passionate people... Companies do not receive any help from government (as is the case in France) when they make this kind of effort. If the CEO of Shell in Tahiti was a Soccer addict, then thos paddlers wold not be given the chance they have today.
You want to beat them, You have to think Va'a, You have to eat Va'a, You have to dream Va'a, you have to have Va'a in your head 100% of the time, It's no part time job.
The truth is that when Hawaiki Nui is over, it's the best time of the year for their families for the will have some time to spent with their wives and kids for a few weeks. The other 11 monts of the year, they only have time to work, paddle, eat, paddle, sleep, paddle...


#27 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 8:38pm


Hiro, if they do have wives and kids, they must have time for a few other things between eating, sleeping, and paddling... if you catch my drift.


#28 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 9:10pm


I guess that is where the seperation is and will always be.......

......." The other 11 monts of the year, they only have time to work, paddle, eat, paddle, sleep, paddle… "

There is no way that any paddling man, outside of Tahiti, in a relationship with kids or soon to have kids can be on that type of schedule. It will be for sure ... 1. Divorce or 2. your wife or girlfriend will be stroking something else and it aint a canoe or your paddle.

So, it comes down to how passoinate you are for paddling and how much you are willing to sacrifice for it? Is it more important than your family?

Get all the single guys who are on top of their paddling career, put them in the same house and same work schedule and just train. Then maybe have some female visitors cum on by to relax the body. THEN JUST MAYBE.


#29 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 9:15pm


Sounds to me like everyone outside of Tahiti has already surrendered and has assumed the poor me attitude. I hope the Open Hawaiian crews have more resolve then those who post on this thread. Go Primo, go OCC, go Livestrong, go any open crew that is trying to live the dream.


#30 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 9:34pm


Very shortly Hawai'i will have young paddlers that train together several times a week. They will be doing some kind of workout (1 man, V1, V6, weight training, running, swimming) together nearly a year in advance of Hawaiki Nui. Without a doubt it will take more than a couple years to build a strong base, but the wheels are in motion.

Will people be required to paddle and train so extensively that it will ruin the other aspects of their lives? This is debatable. But there are several people in the world (myself included) who believe the time is there in your day to do the training, all you need to do is supply the desire. A normal work schedule uses up 8 hours of a 24 hour day. This leaves you 16 hours a day to do what you like (plus two whole days Sat and Sun). How many hours does one need to be the best possible athlete?

Do you really want to commit to doing the training? At the end of the day, can you live with the results you attain? These are the more important questions.


#31 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 9:41pm


A great statement HVA. Just wish I was two years younger so I could be part of that.


#32 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 10:26pm


I'm curious as to just how old are these Tahitian paddlers that are winning the Molokai Hoe?


#33 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 10:26pm


!!! Not all tahitians are psychopaddlers... There are thousands of paddlers and only a few are willing to make so much sacrifice.

  1. Divorce or 2. your wife or girlfriend will be stroking something else and it aint a canoe or your paddle.

You're right anykine ! My own strategy to avoid that is 1. I don't paddle everyday 2. My wife paddle with me...


#34 Wed, 10/07/2009 - 10:48pm


Again we need to apologize to the Tahitians for this talk about "professional" and "steroids" and other stupid stuff.

We could list all of the advantages the Hawaii paddlers have.

1) Local water knowledge
2) Canoe specifications more suited to Hawaiian stroke rate and paddle style
3) Ability to train in race conditions
4) Ability to sleep in their own beds up to a few days before the race
5) There are no direct flights from Tahiti to Hawaii. So generally $1600 and all day travel only on certain days of the week
6) Etc.

Rant #1

After one Molokai, a friend wanted to talk to Luke but Luke didn't have time because he was busy trying to find places for a visiting (I think) New Zealand team he steered to sleep at friend’s houses. I can't believe not one F^%& hotel in Waikiki can step up and help visiting teams. There are at least 15,000 empty hotel rooms on Sunday night in Waikiki

Rant #2

When Kahuku or other local schools play Punahou in football or other sports, do they whine and complain that they (Punahou) have a better weight room, cafeteria, equipment, and sports massage therapists? No, they just go to battle and leave the whining to others. In fact kids like the challenge.

My predictions-

1) Shell Va’a-Tahiti
2) Team Primo
3) Erai-Tahiti
4) Paddle Connection-Tahiti
5) Livestrong
6) Outrigger
7) Another Tahitian Team
8) Lanikai
9) Hui Lanakila
10) ….. no idea


#35 Thu, 10/08/2009 - 6:22am


tahiti
tahiti
tahiti
occ
lanikai
primo
livestrong
aussie
hui lanikila
kailua
cali
Keahiakahoe has some new paddlers this year should do while,with luke steering them.


#36 Thu, 10/08/2009 - 7:16am


c u monkeys at MOLO


#37 Thu, 10/08/2009 - 8:24am


u guys ever seen that one paddling sticker on the back of cars?

SHUT UP AND PADDLE


#38 Thu, 10/08/2009 - 9:03am


"Having the coach is not enough. You got to have people willing to OBEY the coach…"

So true.
If all the paddlers don't buy in - then all the horsepower don't mean shit.


#39 Thu, 10/08/2009 - 10:40am


cut2above- Great point about Kayaking! The ILH program has included some of the best young paddlers and most promising paddlers in Hawaii- Kai Chong, Ryan Dolan, Kalei Kahookele etc. Blane Chong's Hui Nalu 18s consisted of some kayakers and some lifelong paddlers, but the core of that group, even the non-kayakers did copious amounts of cross training. I know for a fact that that crew committed itself to workouts twice a day, including time in the one mans and surfskis, and included paddlers from the Big Island that knew Coach Chong and opted to stay on Oahu for their summer to train with him and put together a really fast crew, an opportunity they would not have had on the Big Island. Kai Chong steers that crew, and along with Kalei is certainly the most promising young steersman in the state. That Hui Nalu crew, as was reported in the advertiser, opted not to use an open steersman, and Kai steered them to a win over a Foti steered Lanikai crew among others. Not to say that the Tahitian program doesn't have a huge leg up on Hawaii in terms of youth development but there are a few small groups that are showing Hawaii has some serious promise for the future.


#40 Thu, 10/08/2009 - 11:40am


Kona J, an Ozzie crew NorthCliffe A or B could probably fill out your top 10, these guys have been doing some serious training.

Cheers Rambo


#41 Thu, 10/08/2009 - 12:13pm


“Having the coach is not enough. You got to have people willing to OBEY the coach…”
So true.
If all the paddlers don’t buy in - then all the horsepower don’t mean shit.

I said that in first place because when you look at one man races during the past years, OPT paddlers had better finish times than Shell paddlers. Their problem is that they do what they want when they want and their coach would not argue with them... 6men races OPT was behind...
OPT have a new coach, René Avaepi, things may change.


#42 Thu, 10/08/2009 - 1:44pm


blank


#43 Mon, 12/13/2010 - 9:21pm


You are all wrong. I have been recruited to steer Team Pao Duce and we have been smoking in our practice sessions. We are sponsored by Leonard's and Gouvea's and they give us as much of their product as we can consume. You can write this down and take it to the bank. WE ARE GOING TO FLAT OUT GAS EVERYBODY! Don't get in our way, you will regret it.


#44 Thu, 10/08/2009 - 4:25pm


Hey All,

I do a bit of Raft racing too. Worlds comps never really had Favourites. But now Brazil and Japan are Pro. This years worlds saw Brazil win again and Japan 2nd. Of course if your pro you chances are alot higher. I am sure these 2 coutries are the only ones that are pro.


#45 Thu, 10/08/2009 - 9:31pm


I want to paddle on Tommy's team. What beer do you drink after the workouts?


#46 Fri, 10/09/2009 - 11:11am


Rather go for the malasadas from Leonard's.


#47 Fri, 10/09/2009 - 11:36am


                   1er shell
                   2eme paddling connection
                   3eme team raromatai (if they go to the race)
                   4eme erai vaa
After the order team for new zealand or hawaii

#48 Sat, 10/10/2009 - 12:29pm


Not knowing exactly who is coming and having faith in Hawaiian teams, I will go with:

Primo
Outrigger
Shell or some Tahitian crew
Lanikai
Northcliff from Australia
Hui Lanakila
Live Strong

If the channel is flat it may or may not hinder Primo and may benefit the Tahitians. Some local teams have not raced with their Molokai crews thus far and makes this all the more interesting. I respect the Tahitians and their training methods - they are just not our methods here in Hawaii. All the innovations we are introduced to by paddlers outside of Hawaii help us move ahead with our own path of choice. There have always been revolving cycles in this race and we Hawaiians live, learn and eventually kick butt! One of the reasons I love paddling so much - it evolves!

God love you Tommy Conner!

Wishing everyone racing and involved a safe and exciting crossing! IMUA!


#49 Sat, 10/10/2009 - 1:50pm


teraiuira1, forget about team raromatai, Maitai Manutea and Jean-Luc were crssing the channel between Huahine and Raiatea this morning... getting ready to kick some asses for HawaikiNui !


#50 Sat, 10/10/2009 - 3:10pm


wait, i just saw erai va'a at a party last week? and trust me, i definitely saw. kinda hard to miss 8 or more HUGE dark guys wearing Va'a Tahiti paddling hats and shirts that say erai va'a on it. Especially when you're a paddler. I was in awe the whole time watching them like as if they were doing somthing that magically gave them skills or something...i got nothing. :P. but anyway, are you sure theyre not paddling the hoe this year? even thought there already here?

well heres my lineup
1. EDT
2. Primo
3. Shell
4. Paddling Connection
5. Livestrong
6. Lanikai

Couple of points i wanted to put out:

There are alot of good young paddlers out there especially dolans, kaihe, kalei (big respects going out to those guys) but are those excelling only in sprint or distance aswell? i wouldnt doubt any of them, i just wanted to know lol

Second, about kalei being an awesome steersman/paddler: i heard a rumor that he's part tahitian, is this true? o.O

Thirdly, any word on what karel is doing? i know he's been out for a while but i really want to see a comeback. I think he was having problems at lanikai so he's on a vacation right now (auryttteeeee) but yea. Theres just going to be that one year. Sometime a few years maybe from now, when everyones in top shape, the channel is going to be raging, and everything is just perfect. and there will be karel, surfing his way to a win. now thats something to see. though it would be interesting if milan paddled it too

fourth, if tomorrow truely is going to be flat, then the tahitians will hav a no doubt advantage. Man, all those guys do is paddling upwind sidewind and no wind. They know, i bet they already did the molokai distance in all those conditions. But from the looks of it, team primo seems really strong this year. would be better with karel steering if got surf, or kalama heiney if it was flat.


#51 Sat, 10/10/2009 - 11:29pm


Better late then never, but will the Head Coach of Team Pao Duce share with the infidels a good recipe for Vinha D'alhos? Inquiring minds want to know.


#52 Tue, 10/13/2009 - 7:42pm


KGB you making me ono. So going Koa Pancake House Kaneohe this weekend for wack some with easy ovah eggs and home fries. They get the best, and good luck if you can get the rescipe?


#53 Thu, 10/15/2009 - 5:42pm


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