Molokai Hoe-10/10/10-This one will be big

I know these comparisons may not be equal or fair. But here are some things to think about when asking the Primo vs. Shell vs. OPT question.

Primo's speed on the Ayau course 2010 which many say was one of the best years of surfing and wind for that race in recent history. 32 miles in 222 minutes (3:41:53) = 6.937 minute per mile pace. Pretty freakin fast!

For comparison we have Shell's speed on the Moloka'i Hoe course of 2009. Granted this is a longer course with a quartering swell and wind so it doesn't lend itself to a good comparison, but it's all we have. This also assumes that Shell has not gotten faster or slower since last year and did not fatigue significantly in the last ten miles of the Moloka'i Hoe. 42 miles in 280 minutes (4:40:17) = 6.67 minute per mile pace.

Over 42 miles Shell of last year is about 0.271 minutes per mile faster than Primo of this year. This translates to roughly 16-17 seconds per mile. Over a 42 mile course, you are looking at about 693 seconds difference or 11.5 minutes.

Shell's margin of victory in 2009 was 12 minutes. So using this comparison that is filled with assumptions Primo should be about 30 seconds closer to Shell this time around.

The other thing to think about is that as good as Shell is, they have been the second best crew in Tahiti for the past year. I may be mistaken, but in every head to head race in the last calendar year OPT has come out the winner. So perhaps everyone should be worrying more about beating OPT this year. You could also argue the point that Shell has an amazing win streak going in the channel so they are the favorite no matter what... we shall see.

I'll be watching the webcast for sure!

#3 Wed, 09/29/2010 - 3:11pm

The only way you're going to know how far a crew paddled is to take a GPS with you in the race.

#5 Wed, 09/29/2010 - 4:42pm

Is finish for SHELL,now is for TEAM OPT whit a new record.For me 1er OPT, 2eme SHELL, 3eme PADDLING CONNECTION or BORA BORA VAA

#7 Wed, 09/29/2010 - 9:16pm

Playing with some more numbers, this time for Team Primo, if we use their finish time from last year's Moloka'i Hoe (4:52:24), for distance of 41 and 42 miles, they averaged 7.13 mins/mile and 6.96 mins/mile. For last year's Henry Ayau race, using 31.53 miles, they averaged 7.4 mins/mile.

So, Team Primo 2009 improved their pace for the Moloka'i Hoe from the Henry Ayau race by 0.27-0.44 minutes depending on the distance. Let's be conservative and give them a 0.27 minute increase between the two races this year (especially since the 41 mile distance seems more accurate), which means Team Primo 2010 would average 6.67 minutes per mile (taking their pace from the 2010 Henry Ayau race of 6.94 mins/mile).

This is faster than Shell 2009 by 0.15 minutes (9 seconds) per mile. Meaning Team Primo of this year would win over Shell 2009 by just over six minutes.

Twelve minutes is a huge deficit to make up, but it's not insurmountable. I think it's probably easier for Team Primo to drop 12 minutes than it is for Shell to drop another six minutes. But this is all just numbers. Still some fun things to think about and it will be a good race.

#11 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 9:50am

we just got back to nz from a race in tahiti last week. 50km iron race from tautira to mahina. team paddle connection A won over opt A & edt A by two minutes. they are pumping at the moment. they beat a quality field heading into hawaikii nui. molokai to the tahitians is a build up for what they consider their biggest race, hawaikii nui. and yes, this year is gonna be a hurler. good luck to kai & the boys, wilfred & paddle connection, & everyone competing.

#13 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 1:11pm

@ia, I agree with you to a certain extent. adding one bull can make an average crew 10 seconds faster in a mile sprint. however it is very unlikely that one single person can make 10 seconds difference every mile for 41 miles. especially when that person will most likely be doing changes. if the bull is in for half the race he now has to make a 20 second difference per mile to get the net 10 second gain you talk about. (ouch my head) it is also nearly impossible to find a person who is a bull compared to all the guys that the elite crews already have. there are no weak spots on thier rosters where you can add another guy that will make that huge a difference. once a crew reaches elite speeds, small gains become that much more difficult to make. it's kinda like approaching the speed of light... the faster you go the more friction/resistance you encounter and thus the harder it is to stay at speed. BUT every hull has a optimum speed so there is a chance that a modern HCRA canoe has a higher optimum speed than we think. perhaps going faster takes less effort. :-\

#15 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 7:27pm

I wanna be a "Bull"

#17 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 8:11pm

gps/cellphones units taped to surfskis, transmiting their positions every seconds, live webcast...

#19 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:33pm

And we will have Rambo following a certain Masters team putting his skills to work. Not long to go now Cecil:o)---

#21 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:49pm

I was so impressed by Team Primo as they came up to the line at the Ayau race and would follow their stroker from a 60 rate to a 70 rate in spurts without missing a beat. All seemed so together and so deternined. I know this crew does not train together all year long, year after year like the Tahitians but they do have a home team advantage. An advantage that has been lessened by the Tahitians continued experience in the channel. They will be strong contenders. For us uninformed.....who is now making up the crew and what are their respective seats ? Us spectators want to know.! Imua Primo !

#23 Fri, 10/01/2010 - 4:01pm

Imua Team Primo, Imua all Hawaii Teams and Most of all IMUA MANU!!!

#25 Sat, 10/02/2010 - 4:23am

Aloha gang, yes we will be doing the live webcast. I posted the information under the general forum

#27 Sun, 10/03/2010 - 5:29pm

GO TAHITI AND GO NZ THE BEST TEAM IN THE WORLD in CHAMPIONAT OF THE WORLD

#29 Mon, 10/04/2010 - 6:51am

Heard from someone in the know that 118 or 120 crews are registered.

#31 Mon, 10/04/2010 - 10:40am

koa, thats not a serious question is it? the answer is obviously yes.... but then again being 6 man paddling is not an Olympic sport maybe no??

#33 Mon, 10/04/2010 - 12:07pm

I think Olympic athletes with a paddling background competing in the Molokai Hoe is fantastic and should be welcomed with open arms. It's certainly a new challenge for them when the conditions are far from flat and most of them realize that now. I remember US Olympian Greg Barton years ago talking about how he expected to do well crossing the Channel based on his experience and skills on flat water, and then being completely humbled when relatively unknown ocean paddlers finished in front of him. It was a huge awakening that being fast on flat did not cross over to fast in the rough, there were other skills to be learned. He said at the time the concept of riding wind bumps didn't even occur to him.
Greg is one of the nicest persons you could meet and now at 50+, has the Ocean skills to be right up there with the top guys, only recently for the first time finishing in front of multiple Molokai Ski Champ Oscar Chalupski in a downwind race in Mauritius a month ago.

Over the years the Aussies have had there share of Olympians competing in the Hoe. Grant Kenny, Steve Woods, Ian Rowling (Lats), Clint Robinson, Shelly Wilding (Oates) just to mention a few. I know there have been many from other countries as well. There's no doubt their involvement in Outrigger racing has been good for the media exposure and their involvement was instrumental in more people picking up a paddle here in Australia over the years.

Bring 'em on i say..... everyone should experience one of the greatest Outrigger races on the planet.

Cheers Rambo

#35 Mon, 10/04/2010 - 2:06pm

Rambo: I certainly remember Greg being a member of that fantastic Offshore team with Billy Whitford steering them to win the Molokai Hoe many years ago.

But what I was curious about was whether Guy Wilding and his Yanks have entered the race as a change of pace training run? Imagine changes every 5 minutes or so? I bet they would beat the Tahitians to Laau Pt? I don't belive Guy and his team would miss this race? Even if it is a different stroke, a different boat, different conditions, no way they going miss this?

#37 Tue, 10/05/2010 - 1:17am

Five Aussie crews racing this year - Outrigger Australia, Aussie Rep Team, Sydney OCC (2 crews) & another 'dial-up' crew. Good luck guys. Go hard!

#39 Tue, 10/05/2010 - 6:56pm

Lots of talk about Tahitian select crews, Oz select crews and Hawaii's Team Primo... But what about the Hawaii Club Crews? What are the thoughts about order of finish for the top ten Hawaii Clubs?

#41 Thu, 10/07/2010 - 10:24pm

GO HAWAII TEAMS ,GO MAUI, KIHEI CANOE CLUB OPEN MEN

#43 Fri, 10/08/2010 - 12:00pm

Energy...excitment...good thing. About the club teams...best luck to them....they are somewhat incestuous though in that they will pull seats from other clubs and even from other countries...but still under the banner of respective clubs. Maybe they should have another division...the club division with guys who paddled the whole season together,,,including the regatta season. But then again the club crews who paddled together all year long know who they are and should be proud that they stayed true to a more traditional format and to each other. No outside ringers. Anyway.. a great sport....will be fun watching it live!

#45 Fri, 10/08/2010 - 3:45pm

My guess is primo does not win but closes the gap from last year to this year, again. Livestrong top Hawaii finisher outside of Primo. And Kukuiula Masters 1st in division.

#47 Sat, 10/09/2010 - 9:36am

I think bankoh made that trophy when they were a title sponsor back in the 90's Now that they don't sponsor the race anymore they kept their trophy.

#49 Sat, 10/09/2010 - 11:58am