Molokai Hoe-10/10/10-This one will be big

This year will be big

There are so many stories-

Does Primo get closer to Tahitians?

Webcast!!

The story among the Tahitians teams. Shell vs OPT vs Paddling Connection vs Erai. Does someone dethrone Shell? Shell will want to win and build momentum for big race in Tahiti. OPT is loaded.

We welcome Bora Bora for first time. From the tahitian689 videos, I notice Bora Bora starts fast and have great passion.

What happens with Hawaii crews? Is Hui Lanakila going to hold off Lanikai and Outrigger?

What will Live Strong do?

I know Outrigger will want be make up for last year and take it out on a few crews.

Will California or Australia break into top 10?

Which Maui, Kauai, and Big Island crews will step up?

I have been getting mixed stories about the tide for that day, Can someone enlighten?

Aloha

Submitted by Kona J on Wed, 09/29/2010 - 12:45pm



Also don't want to forget Kailua Outrigger.


#1 Wed, 09/29/2010 - 12:51pm


No guessing on crew placements, but ...
Molokai high tide just before 6 a.m falling to Honolulu low tide just after 1 p.m that day, similar to Na Wahine O Ke Kai tides.

Molokai
http://www.mobilegeographics.com:81/locations/3014.html?y=2010&m=10&d=10

Honolulu
http://www.mobilegeographics.com:81/locations/2602.html?y=2010&m=10&d=10


#2 Wed, 09/29/2010 - 1:57pm


I know these comparisons may not be equal or fair. But here are some things to think about when asking the Primo vs. Shell vs. OPT question.

Primo's speed on the Ayau course 2010 which many say was one of the best years of surfing and wind for that race in recent history. 32 miles in 222 minutes (3:41:53) = 6.937 minute per mile pace. Pretty freakin fast!

For comparison we have Shell's speed on the Moloka'i Hoe course of 2009. Granted this is a longer course with a quartering swell and wind so it doesn't lend itself to a good comparison, but it's all we have. This also assumes that Shell has not gotten faster or slower since last year and did not fatigue significantly in the last ten miles of the Moloka'i Hoe. 42 miles in 280 minutes (4:40:17) = 6.67 minute per mile pace.

Over 42 miles Shell of last year is about 0.271 minutes per mile faster than Primo of this year. This translates to roughly 16-17 seconds per mile. Over a 42 mile course, you are looking at about 693 seconds difference or 11.5 minutes.

Shell's margin of victory in 2009 was 12 minutes. So using this comparison that is filled with assumptions Primo should be about 30 seconds closer to Shell this time around.

The other thing to think about is that as good as Shell is, they have been the second best crew in Tahiti for the past year. I may be mistaken, but in every head to head race in the last calendar year OPT has come out the winner. So perhaps everyone should be worrying more about beating OPT this year. You could also argue the point that Shell has an amazing win streak going in the channel so they are the favorite no matter what... we shall see.

I'll be watching the webcast for sure!


#3 Wed, 09/29/2010 - 3:11pm


How accurate is the distance measurement for Shell's course? Could it be off by a mile or two (either way, though shorter is obviously better for this comparison)? For instance, if they only paddled 41 miles, their pace drops to 6.83 minutes per mile, meaning primo would be a lot closer. Drop it to 40 miles (probably a stretch) and they are 7 minute miles.

I'm not trying to bash jc9_0's argument, I think it's actually a pretty fun and interesting way to look at things. I'm just wondering if what the course is listed at is actually what is paddled. Same thing would go for the Team Primo course mentioned, adjusting the numbers a bit either way, but it seems like that distance is more set since it's a coastal race?


#4 Wed, 09/29/2010 - 4:34pm


The only way you're going to know how far a crew paddled is to take a GPS with you in the race.


#5 Wed, 09/29/2010 - 4:42pm


of course i have no idea of the exact route a crew takes is but here are the distances from google earth.

from the outside of Hale O Lono to the beach in Waikiki is Exactly 41.00 miles.

from the Hawai'i Kai channel to Nanakuli Beach Park is 31.53 miles.

so 6.82 minute miles for Shell and 7.04 minute miles for Primo... once again according to Google Earth.

a difference of 0.22 or 13-14 seconds per mile. over a 41 mile course you get a difference of 553 seconds or around 9 minutes and 15 seconds. so this would imply that relative to Shell 2009 Primo has gained 2:45 of time.

yeah all the numbers were just something fun to think about. of course they could be grossly inaccurate. but on the other hand one has to wonder if any crew in the world can make up a 12 minute deficit in one year of training without a big change in personnel, equipment, etc.

there is no debate that Team Primo is the best Hawai'i/California has. so we all jump on with them and hope for the best!


#6 Wed, 09/29/2010 - 8:45pm


Is finish for SHELL,now is for TEAM OPT whit a new record.For me 1er OPT, 2eme SHELL, 3eme PADDLING CONNECTION or BORA BORA VAA


#7 Wed, 09/29/2010 - 9:16pm


Go primo! Go lanikai! Hui lanakila! Kailua! Healani! Livestrong! Outrigger! Go Hawaii!!!!


#8 Wed, 09/29/2010 - 9:51pm


Some great points.

I also think we need to consider the team that is "clicking" on race day.

Is there a chance that Team Primo wins? Yes!

If all paddlers are feeling good and charging it together, then they can do it. Also there is the fox chasing the rabbit scenario. Primo will go faster chasing or racing with the Tahitians. They also will not get caught at the start like they did last year. Learn from year to year.

On the other hand, Molokai shows why the Tahitians are so impressive. Traveling long distance, using canoe designs they are not totally familiar with, not their home waters, and sleeping away from home and still dominating.

It would be great to have some video interviews of the teams this week and shots of their last couple of practices.

Aloha


#9 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 8:55am


jc9, that breakdown is sick... thanks for doing the math on that.

I still believe. Imua Hawai'i nei


#10 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 9:01am


Playing with some more numbers, this time for Team Primo, if we use their finish time from last year's Moloka'i Hoe (4:52:24), for distance of 41 and 42 miles, they averaged 7.13 mins/mile and 6.96 mins/mile. For last year's Henry Ayau race, using 31.53 miles, they averaged 7.4 mins/mile.

So, Team Primo 2009 improved their pace for the Moloka'i Hoe from the Henry Ayau race by 0.27-0.44 minutes depending on the distance. Let's be conservative and give them a 0.27 minute increase between the two races this year (especially since the 41 mile distance seems more accurate), which means Team Primo 2010 would average 6.67 minutes per mile (taking their pace from the 2010 Henry Ayau race of 6.94 mins/mile).

This is faster than Shell 2009 by 0.15 minutes (9 seconds) per mile. Meaning Team Primo of this year would win over Shell 2009 by just over six minutes.

Twelve minutes is a huge deficit to make up, but it's not insurmountable. I think it's probably easier for Team Primo to drop 12 minutes than it is for Shell to drop another six minutes. But this is all just numbers. Still some fun things to think about and it will be a good race.


#11 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 9:50am


I am very excited to see what happens. OPT has been beating Shell (not by much) in every race since last year's Hawaiki Nui. Is Shell slower than years past? Or has OPT's new coach, Rene Aveapii, made that much of a difference...?

The fact that all these Tahitian teams come back to race across the Ka'iwi Channel every year is pretty amazing. Are they actually peaking for Moloka'i? Or do they consider the Channel just another stepping stone leading up to Hawaiki Nui?

It's going to be an awesome race.


#12 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 12:20pm


we just got back to nz from a race in tahiti last week. 50km iron race from tautira to mahina. team paddle connection A won over opt A & edt A by two minutes. they are pumping at the moment. they beat a quality field heading into hawaikii nui. molokai to the tahitians is a build up for what they consider their biggest race, hawaikii nui. and yes, this year is gonna be a hurler. good luck to kai & the boys, wilfred & paddle connection, & everyone competing.


#13 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 1:11pm


Good research guys! All these numbers or statistics do play a big role in time wether acccurate or not they pose good thinking and measurment for teams or individuals to gain speed on a reasonable basis.

If your averaging molokai distance its pretty easy to drop ur time in one.

If your crew paddles 10sec faster for each mi they did last year for 42mi you would have been 7min faster than your previous time

10 sec/mi is not that hard to make up 1 BULL could pull it off now jus double that 20sec/mi that's tough, but u would b 14min faster, still its possible for PRIMO to do something like that in 07 when lanikai got 3rd they had gotten 10 min faster that was amazing but PRIMO has a lot more to offer tho this year and hopefully they do click race day and jus figure it out then they will guarantee win!


#14 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 2:30pm


@ia, I agree with you to a certain extent. adding one bull can make an average crew 10 seconds faster in a mile sprint. however it is very unlikely that one single person can make 10 seconds difference every mile for 41 miles. especially when that person will most likely be doing changes. if the bull is in for half the race he now has to make a 20 second difference per mile to get the net 10 second gain you talk about. (ouch my head) it is also nearly impossible to find a person who is a bull compared to all the guys that the elite crews already have. there are no weak spots on thier rosters where you can add another guy that will make that huge a difference. once a crew reaches elite speeds, small gains become that much more difficult to make. it's kinda like approaching the speed of light... the faster you go the more friction/resistance you encounter and thus the harder it is to stay at speed. BUT every hull has a optimum speed so there is a chance that a modern HCRA canoe has a higher optimum speed than we think. perhaps going faster takes less effort. :-\


#15 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 7:27pm


approaching the speed of light...

Captain Kirk ? Where are you ?


#16 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 7:34pm


I wanna be a "Bull"


#17 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 8:11pm


blabla,blabla.calcul,calcul.(ouch my head).TAHITI TEAM just win and no calcul of speed and faaitoito for all.


#18 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 8:13pm


gps/cellphones units taped to surfskis, transmiting their positions every seconds, live webcast...


#19 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:33pm


sorry. I realize the numbers were crazy. But it was An interesting thought.

Championchip sounds pretty keuhl.


#20 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:42pm


And we will have Rambo following a certain Masters team putting his skills to work. Not long to go now Cecil:o)---


#21 Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:49pm


Go hawaii canoe clubs. Lanikai, hui lanakila, outrigger, kailua......... and all the other canoe clubs.... the believers....keep believing in the clubs......keep believing in each other my braddahs. FTW


#22 Fri, 10/01/2010 - 3:46pm


I was so impressed by Team Primo as they came up to the line at the Ayau race and would follow their stroker from a 60 rate to a 70 rate in spurts without missing a beat. All seemed so together and so deternined. I know this crew does not train together all year long, year after year like the Tahitians but they do have a home team advantage. An advantage that has been lessened by the Tahitians continued experience in the channel. They will be strong contenders. For us uninformed.....who is now making up the crew and what are their respective seats ? Us spectators want to know.! Imua Primo !


#23 Fri, 10/01/2010 - 4:01pm


hopefully for everyone involved the weather forecast improves.
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#24 Fri, 10/01/2010 - 9:07pm


Imua Team Primo, Imua all Hawaii Teams and Most of all IMUA MANU!!!


#25 Sat, 10/02/2010 - 4:23am


Looking better now jc.....not too keen on the swell direction but at least is some and wind looks ok.


#26 Sun, 10/03/2010 - 1:06pm


Aloha gang, yes we will be doing the live webcast. I posted the information under the general forum


#27 Sun, 10/03/2010 - 5:29pm


NZ crew to win the masters


#28 Sun, 10/03/2010 - 8:50pm


GO TAHITI AND GO NZ THE BEST TEAM IN THE WORLD in CHAMPIONAT OF THE WORLD


#29 Mon, 10/04/2010 - 6:51am


There were 112 crews last year. Any thoughts on the number of crews this year.


#30 Mon, 10/04/2010 - 9:44am


Heard from someone in the know that 118 or 120 crews are registered.


#31 Mon, 10/04/2010 - 10:40am


Just wondering if there will be a team entered consisting of Olympic caliber paddlers?


#32 Mon, 10/04/2010 - 11:55am


koa, thats not a serious question is it? the answer is obviously yes.... but then again being 6 man paddling is not an Olympic sport maybe no??


#33 Mon, 10/04/2010 - 12:07pm


Koa is probably reffering to a crew with paddlers who have competed and won in olympics wether its paddling or kayak. Last year there was a featured crew with olympic medalist involved I think 6 of them had several medals and there were talk about this crew doing good ended up in the 20's somewhere last year some team zebra from canada or something like that, they probably would have done good but last year was kinda rough


#34 Mon, 10/04/2010 - 12:52pm


I think Olympic athletes with a paddling background competing in the Molokai Hoe is fantastic and should be welcomed with open arms. It's certainly a new challenge for them when the conditions are far from flat and most of them realize that now. I remember US Olympian Greg Barton years ago talking about how he expected to do well crossing the Channel based on his experience and skills on flat water, and then being completely humbled when relatively unknown ocean paddlers finished in front of him. It was a huge awakening that being fast on flat did not cross over to fast in the rough, there were other skills to be learned. He said at the time the concept of riding wind bumps didn't even occur to him.
Greg is one of the nicest persons you could meet and now at 50+, has the Ocean skills to be right up there with the top guys, only recently for the first time finishing in front of multiple Molokai Ski Champ Oscar Chalupski in a downwind race in Mauritius a month ago.

Over the years the Aussies have had there share of Olympians competing in the Hoe. Grant Kenny, Steve Woods, Ian Rowling (Lats), Clint Robinson, Shelly Wilding (Oates) just to mention a few. I know there have been many from other countries as well. There's no doubt their involvement in Outrigger racing has been good for the media exposure and their involvement was instrumental in more people picking up a paddle here in Australia over the years.

Bring 'em on i say..... everyone should experience one of the greatest Outrigger races on the planet.

Cheers Rambo


#35 Mon, 10/04/2010 - 2:06pm


rambo, i hear the aussie mens crew have been training together for a few months now, is that a selection team? travis, big todd, mick, danny, greg, etc..?? will be a tough team if it is. good luck to the aussies.


#36 Mon, 10/04/2010 - 7:10pm


Rambo: I certainly remember Greg being a member of that fantastic Offshore team with Billy Whitford steering them to win the Molokai Hoe many years ago.

But what I was curious about was whether Guy Wilding and his Yanks have entered the race as a change of pace training run? Imagine changes every 5 minutes or so? I bet they would beat the Tahitians to Laau Pt? I don't belive Guy and his team would miss this race? Even if it is a different stroke, a different boat, different conditions, no way they going miss this?


#37 Tue, 10/05/2010 - 1:17am


Koa, No Guy will miss it, not paddling with us this year. He will be away with Pat and Ryan Dolan.

Peowpeow, the Aussie crew you are talking about is Outrigger Australia, yep powerful crew and plenty of experience..
There is also the AOCRA Aussie Rep Team, selection based on One Man finish position in the OC1 Nationals.

Could be others that I'm not aware of.


#38 Tue, 10/05/2010 - 6:25pm


Five Aussie crews racing this year - Outrigger Australia, Aussie Rep Team, Sydney OCC (2 crews) & another 'dial-up' crew. Good luck guys. Go hard!


#39 Tue, 10/05/2010 - 6:56pm


nice! its gonna be a good molokai this year! good luck to everyone. good quality field. cant wait.


#40 Tue, 10/05/2010 - 8:55pm


Lots of talk about Tahitian select crews, Oz select crews and Hawaii's Team Primo... But what about the Hawaii Club Crews? What are the thoughts about order of finish for the top ten Hawaii Clubs?


#41 Thu, 10/07/2010 - 10:24pm


Good Luck to all the paddlers! Go PRIMO Go!


#42 Fri, 10/08/2010 - 10:38am


GO HAWAII TEAMS ,GO MAUI, KIHEI CANOE CLUB OPEN MEN


#43 Fri, 10/08/2010 - 12:00pm


GO TAHITI TEAMS .OPT,SHELL,PADDLING CONNECTION,ERAI;PUNAAUIA,BORABORA VAA.
Good Luck to all the paddlers! Go TEAM OPT and a new record.Same for SHELL

 THE TAHITIAN TSUNAMIE WILL BE THERE

#44 Fri, 10/08/2010 - 3:10pm


Energy...excitment...good thing. About the club teams...best luck to them....they are somewhat incestuous though in that they will pull seats from other clubs and even from other countries...but still under the banner of respective clubs. Maybe they should have another division...the club division with guys who paddled the whole season together,,,including the regatta season. But then again the club crews who paddled together all year long know who they are and should be proud that they stayed true to a more traditional format and to each other. No outside ringers. Anyway.. a great sport....will be fun watching it live!


#45 Fri, 10/08/2010 - 3:45pm


We go live in less then 24 hours!

www.livestream.com/oceanpaddlertv


#46 Sat, 10/09/2010 - 9:26am


My guess is primo does not win but closes the gap from last year to this year, again. Livestrong top Hawaii finisher outside of Primo. And Kukuiula Masters 1st in division.


#47 Sat, 10/09/2010 - 9:36am


don't trust windguru,always way off.When will Bankoh give Shell the perpetual trophy that they earned,Bankoh refuses to give it.Shame!


#48 Sat, 10/09/2010 - 10:52am


I think bankoh made that trophy when they were a title sponsor back in the 90's Now that they don't sponsor the race anymore they kept their trophy.


#49 Sat, 10/09/2010 - 11:58am


hey check out this thread from last year... the gap is the same. 12 minutes. Primo got faster! but so did 1st and 2nd place. pretty amazing that all the math still works out the same.

again, killer race by all the elites and average joes out there. the sport is obviously progressing and crews are still getting faster as a whole. the winning pace has now dropped to 6.61 minute miles for 41 miles straight. or 6 minute and 37 second miles for 4.5 hours. either way they're flying.


#50 Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:32pm


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