Molokai Hoe results 2007 - predicted.

Here is something interesting;
take the min/mile time from Molokai Hoe 2006 of your favorite team, multiply by 32, = the distance Henry Ayau, and use that as projected time for the Henry Ajau 2007. Then look up the actual time your team paddled Henry Ajau 2007; use this actual time, divide by 32 => min/mile 2007, and use that to calculate the projected Molokai Hoe 2007 time.

Lanikai I Molokai Hoe 2006 42 miles, average time: 7:17min/mile
Lanikai I Henry Ayau 2007 projected: 32 miles x 7:17 = 3:53:04 total projected,
actual time paddled Henry Ayau 2007 = 3:50:04

Lanikai II Molokai Hoe 2006 42 miles, average time: 7:54min/mile
Lanikai II Henry Ayau 2007 projected: 32 miles x 7:54 = 4:12:48 total projected,
actual time paddled Henry Ayau 2007 = 4:12:01

This suggests that Lanikai I has improved since last year; Lanikai II crew paddled for the very first time together in the Henry Ayau, further improvement can be expected until the Molokai Hoe.

Assuming that Lanikai I improves by 3 sec/mile and Lanikai II improves by 9 sec/mile during the next three weeks, then

Lanikai I Molokai Hoe 2007 => 5:03:48 ( time good for rank 5 2006)
Lanikai II Molokai Hoe 2007 => 5:25:30 ( good for rank 15 2006)

For OCC 3
OCC 3 Molokai Hoe 2006 42 miles, average time: 7:43 min/mile
OCC 3 Henry Ayau 2007 32 miles x 7:43 = 4:04:56 total projected,
actual time paddled Henry Ayau 2007 = 3:57:26

assuming they do not improve further during the next three weeks:
OCC 3 Molokai Hoe 2007 => projected 5:11:30 ( rank 8 2006)

As you can see the min/mile time from the Molokai Hoe predicted the actual time needed for the teams during the Henry Ayau 2007, almost one year later, quite accurately.

The overall time that will be needed for the Molokai Hoe can not easily be predicted as conditions have a strong influence.
The relative performance of teams remains quite stable, though. Therefore:

Molokai Hoe 2007

OCC1 rank 2.- 4.
Lanikai I rank 4.- 6.
OCC3 rank 8.-10.
Lanikai II rank 15.-17.
Tahiti teams:
Shell Vaa rank 1. - 2.
The runner up from last year rank 2. - 6.

Of course conditions matter, key paddlers may get injured etc.. However, when you look through race results from previous years, you can find surprising consistencies, really fascinating.
I think that all the top teams will have taken the preparation this year very serious, so everybody has improved and that will balance out.

Submitted by eckhart on Mon, 09/17/2007 - 11:33pm